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Factors Influencing Traffic Demand Forecast for Privately Owned Toll Schemes

Forecasting is an inexact science and traffic forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainties. These uncertainties can arise both from the data and from the forecasting procedures used.

The aim of the thesis is to review of forecast traffic demand for toll roads, shadow toll roads and public transport schemes, in order to investigate the accuracy of traffic forecasts and to determine whether there are systematic biases affecting the forecasts.

In order to attempt to identify sources of forecast error and by reviewing previous methodologies, it was considered appropriate to develop a new approach to the problem, which has been defined as “hybrid”. This makes partial use of two methodologies that are well accepted by economists.

From the study it was raised that inaccuracies in the assumptions and in the analytical model that have been used in forecasting traffic demand, are likely causes of forecast error. Furthermore, traffic forecast error can be caused by eventual omissions of variables used within those models and by uncertainties in their values.

Within the study several factors have been identified, as potential source of traffic demand forecast error, but the importance of them has not been assessed. Further research in order to assess the importance and relationship between these factors is suggested.

Mostra/Nascondi contenuto.
Chapter 1 – Introduction 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Description of the Problem Traffic forecasts studies have long played an important role in the planning and financing of toll facilities throughout the world. The performance of the toll scheme depends critically on the estimates of the traffic that will use the scheme in the years ahead. Therefore, reasonable forecasts of traffic demand are a critical element in the evaluation of project feasibility. However, forecasting is an inexact science and traffic forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainties. These uncertainties arise both from the data and from the forecasting procedures used. Uncertainties in the values of the variables used within the forecast model and the assumptions that have been made in producing the forecasts are likely causes of forecast error. Furthermore, the choice of the analytical model that is used in predicting traffic volumes may be a cause of forecast error. Both these aspects are discussed in detail in chapter two. The demand for a new toll scheme comes from different potential users, each with their own travel movements and each making an individual decision on whether or not to pay a toll. Furthermore, in most cases the opening year of the project will be several years after the study is done. Traffic forecasts also depend on future forecast of economic activity, which is further subjected to the short-term economic cycles. 1.2 Thesis Objective The aim of the thesis is to review of forecast traffic demand for toll roads, shadow toll roads and public transport schemes, in order to investigate the accuracy of traffic forecasts and to determine whether there are systematic biases affecting the forecasts. For this purpose a number of schemes in different countries where the forecasts were different to the real traffic flow after the opening date will be examined. Previous studies (DETR, 1999) showed that demographic and socio-economical factors as well as the model used within the forecasts are potential causes of inaccuracy in the predictions of car-ownership and travel demand. The thesis will also investigate other aspects such

Tesi di Master

Autore: Gianluca Cesare Contatta »

Composta da 99 pagine.

 

Questa tesi ha raggiunto 548 click dal 20/03/2004.

 

Consultata integralmente 2 volte.

Disponibile in PDF, la consultazione è esclusivamente in formato digitale.