NATO Interventions post-Cold War: an Assessment of the Adaptive Capabilities and Future Perspectives of the Atlantic Alliance

7 Introduction: Analyzing the past to assess the future of the Alliance This year, the Atlantic Alliance celebrates its 70th birthday, earning itself the epithet of “the Enduring Alliance”. 1 Although it is true that NATO has been an exceptionally long-lived alliance 2 and it is likely different in nature from previous initiatives in the field of collective security in so far as it has brought together countries that “have been nurtured on civil liberties and on the fundamental human rights” 3 , many observers in the academic, political and military field claim that - in order to survive the challenges posed by a changing international system - it needs to keep changing and adapting, or else slip into irrelevance. 4 As NATO’s former Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis said, without beating around the bush: “The fact is, NATO is in trouble.” 5 The reasons for that statement are manifold, and belonging to different levels. On the international level, Russia’s renewed assertivity 6 , the growing competition from a strong and ambitious China 7 capable of exerting a certain leverage on the European allies 8 , the more general accelerated power shift to East Asia, as well as regime instability in Algeria, 1 T.A. Sayle, “Enduring Alliance: A History of NATO and the Post-War Global Order”, Cornell University Press, April 2019; J. Lindley-French, “The Enduring Alliance”, Atlantic Treaty Association, 27 June 2016 2 as an article appeared on the Economist points out, “Most alliances die young. External threats change; national interests diverge; costs become too burdensome” (The Economist, “How NATO is shaping up at 70”, 14 March 2019 https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/03/14/how-nato-is- shaping-up-at-70), making a reference to an interesting study from the Brookings Institute according to which over the previous five century 63 major military alliances have existed, of which only 10 have lived past the age of 40, with an average lifespan of 15 years (Patrick T. Warren, “Alliance History and the Future of NATO: what the last 500 years of alliance behavior tells us about NATO’s path forward”, Brookings Institute, 21st Century Defense Initiative Policy Paper, 30 June 2010) 3 “Summary of a Memorandum Representing Mr.Bevin’s Views on the Formation of a Western Alliance”, reprinted in U.S. Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1948, vol.3, p.5 4 Giancarlo Aragona, “Adattarsi per sopravvivere: perchè la NATO è ancora importante”, ISPI online, 4 April 2019 https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/adattarsi-sopravvivere-perche-la-nato-e-ancora- importante-22738 5 James Stavridis, “Why NATO is essential for World Peace, According to Its Former Commander”, Time, 4 April 2019 https://time.com/5564171/why-nato-is-essential-world-peace/ 6 This is not exactly a new phenomena, since its roots date back probably to the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 and passes through the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, but at the time of this writing the confrontational standing of NATO and Russia is intensifying due to reported violations by the latter of the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces)Treaty (1987) and the consequent withdrawal of the US. from the treaty itself. 7 For more on the issue: Andy Wolf, “Why China is a Bigger Threat than Russia”, National Interest, 5 April 2019 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-china-bigger-threat-russia-51162; Erik Brattberg, “Time for NATO to Talk about China”, Carnegie Europe, 26 March 2019 https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/78684 ; Joel Gehrke, “NATO turns a wary eye toward China”, Washington Examiner, 2 April 2019 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense- national-security/nato-turns-a-wary-eye-toward-china; Matthew Karnitschnig, “For NATO, China is the new Russia”, Politico, 4 April 2019 https://www.politico.eu/article/for-nato-china-is-the-new-russia/ 8 Minxin Pei, “The China-Europe Lovefest”, National Interest, 12 July 2014 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-china-europe-lovefest-10859