Policy Responses to Population Decline and Ageing

 5
It is also important to consider that in the world there is one billion people living in the developed 
countries and five billion people living in poorer countries, so future migration is determined by 
politics not only of rich countries. 
 
II. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PROSPECTS 
 
During the New York meeting, Ms. Zlotnik
2
 assessed that, despite the fact that the population 
pyramids for the less developed countries are expected to change even more quickly, the issue of 
ageing concerns more the developed countries. There are actually 21 countries that are witnessing a 
population decline, they will become 58 by 2050. It is the first population reduction during the 
times of economic prosperity. 
 
The median age, in the developed regions, has changed and it will move from 38 years in 2000 to 
46 years in 2050. In the less developed countries, median age will change from 24 years in 2000 to 
37 years in 2050. This is calculated assuming a Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
3
 stabilization at about 1.7 
to 1.9. If the TFR declined to 1.5 the median age in 2050 would be 53 years and the working age 
population (WAP)
4
 in 2050 will have declined in absolute terms.  
Some experts have pointed out the methodology trough which these data have come from. The 50 
years time-span projections was considered to be too long. None, for example, forecast the start or 
the end of a baby boom, concerning migration the previsions for only 5 years is already a difficult 
task. Thus, there are big differentials between the forecasts of migration of the United Nations and 
those of the European Union. The former account for about 200.000 migrants between 2020 and 
2025, the latter accounted a minimum number of 660.000 per year. Some experts say that even if 
fertility is not forecast correctly, it would not change much the outcome of the projections, because 
the current age structure is the main factor.   
At the opposite side, developing regions are expected to increase their population bases. How much 
potential there is for movement from the developing to the developed regions? In the 1990s, 
migration from developing regions accounted for half the growth in the developed regions, and in 
the period 1995-2000, 61 percent of the growth in developed regions derived from migration. 
Some participants at the conference suggested studying the problem at a global level, in order to 
uncover overpopulation problems in some areas and lack of resources in other areas. In fact, the 
                                                 
2
 Director of the Population Estimates and Projections Section of the Population Division, United Nations. 
3
 TFR= The average number of children that a woman gives birth to in her lifetime, assuming that the prevailing rates 
remain unchanged 
4
 Working age population =  Population aged 15 – 64.