The Grand Renaissance Dam Water Diplomacy Mechanisms Applied on the River Nile Trans-boundary Conflict

The Gran Renaissance Dam represents a source of tension between upstream Ethiopian and downstream Egypt. The balance of power has changed and Ethiopia has acquired a new hydro hegemony on the Nile basin. On the other hand, Egypt is challenging this new hegemony by framing the conflict as a matter of national security as well as by opposing the construction and filling of the dam on various international platforms. The present thesis starts by analyzing the problem and the changed dynamics of the power balance through a theoretical framework where international relations school of thoughts are applied, among which: Realism, the English School, and finally the concept of Hydro Hegemony in trans-boundary conflicts. The present thesis will analyze the source of tension between riparian countries by providing facts related to construction and filling of the Gran Renaissance Dam by upstream Ethiopia and the possible consequences on downstream Egypt. Furthermore, the geopolitical context surrounding the conflict will be analyzed as well as the way trans-boundary conflicts are treated by international law. Accordingly, and given that trans-boundary water conflicts are hard to manage because of their intersection to various natural and societal domains it would be important to understand the importance of considering multi-track conflict management approaches and consider, at the same time, that environmental conflict management does not focus only on the root causes, but takes also into account other influencing factors such as the target, the trigger, the channels, and the catalysts.

Throughout the various chapters, the synergy between multi-track conflict management approaches and Water diplomacy mechanisms will be emphasized as they offer a tool on how to analyze the various aspects of the conflict and help to understand means by which the conflict can be resolved and peace building programs can be designed. In fact, the application of the Multi-track Water Diplomacy Framework on the GERD conflict will tackle the political situation of each country, the socio economical characteristics, the bio-physical characteristics of the river, the status of conflict and cooperation, the level of interdependency between Ethiopia and Egypt, and the level of governance effectiveness. The analysis of each track will generate a table and each will provide indicators that would potentially help in the identification of potential zones of effective cooperation between Egypt and Ethiopia. Such areas of effective potential cooperation could represent an input to the realization of peace building programs and conflict resolution approaches as well as a lens through which international actors can further understand the level of their possible intervention. In fact, water diplomacy can represent a foreign policy strategy where cooperation and multilateralism would be the only approach to resolve complex environmental and global problems, among which trans-boundary water conflicts such as the GERD conflict on the Nile basin. Finally, the European Union can play an important role towards peace building on the Nile Basin by means of by mediating, strengthening local institutions, and investing through holistic and multi-track strategies that should focus on zones of effective cooperation identified through the multi level tools offered by water diplomacy mechanisms.